Election Focus on Cork's Northside

This article appeared as an opinion piece in the Cork Independent on Thursday 15 May 2014

 

 

 

Predicting election outcomes is hazardous and I am reminded of the ancient Chinese poet, Lao Tzu, who said, ‘Those who have knowledge, don’t predict. Those who predict, don’t have knowledge.’ Accordingly, I am not going to make any big predictions here but I will cast a lazy eye over the Cork City Council local electoral areas, beginning today with the Northside. First, I would like to refer back to last week’s column where I spoke of the declining number of candidates seeking local election in Cork city. The number has dropped from 84 candidates in 1974 to 59 in 2009. Thankfully, in 2014, there is an increase in candidate numbers to 65 which is heartening. In the three electoral wards north of the river, 31 candidates will battle it out for 13 seats.

 

In Cork North Central, nine people will be on the ballot paper with five seats up for grabs. Traditionally in Irish elections, incumbents have a significant advantage and it is hard to look past the five sitting councillors. Mick Barry polled spectacularly well in 2009 and, in fact, he was the top vote-getter in the entire city. He was comfortably elected on the first count with one and-a-half quotas and a 26.50% share of the vote. It is inconceivable that Mick Barry, running for the Anti-Austerity Alliance (AAA), would not be elected this time around although he will take nothing for granted and will continue to work hard in his community between now and 23 May. Catherine Clancy was second past the post in this ward in 2009 and polled solidly. This time around there are a number of factors at play, most noticeably the expectation that the Labour Party will suffer in these elections. However, Clancy may well be insulated due her personal popularity and the fact that she has enjoyed a successful twelve months as an excellent and high-profile Lord Mayor. Fine Gael’s Patricia Gosch made the quota on the ninth count five years ago and she has been an active member of the city council since then. She will be confident of retaining her seat. Kenneth O’Flynn of Fianna Fáil and Thomas Gould of Sinn Féin were elected in 2009 without reaching the quota, with first preference votes of 844 and 618 respectively. You would have to imagine that there is a seat for Fianna Fáil in this ward and, as an incumbent, O’Flynn should have an advantage over his party colleague, Dr John Sheehan. Even though Thomas Gould polled modestly in 2009, I have total confidence that he will be returned in 2014. My confidence is based on two reasons – (1) the rising popularity of Sinn Féin and (2) the impressive impact that Gould has made in City Hall over the last five years. And what of the rest? Donnacha Loftus (Fine Gael) and Dr John Sheehan (Fianna Fáil) have impressive local community credentials but I am not convinced that their parties will secure a second seat in the ward and they will find it hard to unseat their incumbent party colleagues. Billy Corcoran is a non-party candidate who has signed the ‘People’s Contract’. His message, for people to empower themselves, is an attractive one but he will struggle to win a seat. The final candidate, Lil O’Donnell, of the Anti-Austerity Alliance is a dark horse in the contest. Not only is she an impressive candidate in her own right but she can anticipate huge help, through transfers, from Mick Barry. When you consider the fact that Barry passed the quota with 775 votes to spare in 2009, you would be foolish to write off O’Donnell’s chances of dramatically claiming a second seat for the AAA.

 

In Cork North East, the four sitting councillors will be hoping to be returned to City Hall. Labour’s John Kelleher topped the poll in 2009 and – like Catherine Clancy – he will be relying on personal popularity outweighing party affiliation. Fianna Fáil’s Tim Brosnan has represented this ward since his breakthrough election in 1991 and, as his party’s sole candidate in the area, he should secure a good vote. Ted Tynan of the Workers’ Party has never been a prolific vote-getter but he is a diligent public representative and, as an alternative voice to the established parties, I think he will make it again. Fine Gael’s Joe Kavanagh was co-opted to council to replace Dara Murphy in 2011 and he has been a strong councillor in the intervening three years. Of course, he many well come under pressure from party colleague, Sue-Ellen Carroll, who is a good candidate. Sinn Féin’s, Stephen Cunningham, will also be in the mix coming down the home straight. I know Stephen as a first year student on the BSc Government degree in UCC and he is intelligent, articulate and hugely committed. Pat Coughlan secured nearly 8% first preference votes for Sinn Féin in this ward in 2009 and if Cunningham can add a few percentage points to this, he may well claim a seat. The question then becomes – at whose expense?

 

With 13 candidates for four seats, it would take a brave (or foolish) person to predict the outcome in Cork North West with any degree of certainty. The picture is confused by the fact that the top two vote getters in 2009, Dave McCarthy (RIP) and Jonathan O’Brien (now in Dáil Éireann) are not in the field. You would have to reckon that there is a seat in this ward for the hard-working Tony Fitzgerald of Fianna Fáil, for Sinn Féin’s Mick Nugent and for a Fine Gael candidate – more than likely incumbent Joe O’Callaghan over Lyndsey Clarke. Former Lord Mayor, Michael O’Connell, will be hopeful of continuing his time on Cork City Council but – like all Labour Party candidates – he will be under some pressure. The unknown dimension in the ward is now the remaining candidates will do and how their performance will impact on the outcome. Not only do you have a second Sinn Féin candidate but there are five non-party hopefuls, a representative from the Workers’ Party and one from the Anti-Austerity Alliance. It could be a case of ‘too many cooks spoiling the broth’ and splintering of votes amongst these candidates could play into the hands of the grateful incumbent councillors.

 

So, that’s a brief summary of the three Northside local electoral areas; next week I will take a look at the Southside areas. Since I started with a quote it’s appropriate to end with one – this time from the Nobel laureate, Nils Bohr, ‘Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.’